Mid Week Comments
Harvest Advances - 10/19/21
Harvest continues to advance, with a perfect harvest so far for most fall
crops. Almost every crop is ahead of normal harvest progress due to the
warm fall (except sugarbeets), which usually leads to smaller harvest
losses. To make things more bearish, yields have been better than
expected for most producers, including the drought ravaged northwest corn
belt. So as production estimates continue to improve, its quite a
surprise that prices aren't retreating. In fact, prices are stagnant or
rising (as in the case of new HRS wheat highs), as most of the world
knows inflation is coming - even the blind US government is acknowledging
as much. The only question is, how bad will inflation get??? With the
Socialist "Build Back Better" welfare programs pending (which will spend
more than the entire US yearly tax collections), government negligence
has never been worse.
Weather remains warm, with temps above normal for the entire 2 week
period in the US. That will help accelerate harvest of crops, although
precip will increase (its been very dry), with above normal precip
forecast the coming week in the Pacific northwest, and then moving into
the central corn belt in days 8-14.
Recently wet weather has improved soil moisture again this week, with
topsoil moisture now at 63% rated adequate/surplus (+5% this week) vs.
only 44% last year. Subsoil gained 3% this week to 55% rated
adequate/surplus (vs. 47% last year). Soil moisture levels have been
replenished nicely this fall, reducing the risk of drought next spring.
Weekly crop progress yesterday 10/18 showed excellent harvest progress,
with corn 52% harvested (11% ahead of normal), and soybeans 60% harvested
(5% ahead). Most other crops are also ahead of normal harvest progress,
with sorghum 59% harvested (9% ahead) and sunflowers 29% (8% ahead),
while winter wheat is 70% planted, 1% behind normal. Sugarbeets,
however, are behind normal harvest progress due to heat delaying harvest
(40% harvested vs. 61% normal).
Corn crop conditions remained 60% rated G/E, but the yield model improved
0.5 bu in its last week to 177.4 bu final yield. Its likely that corn
yields nationally will also be increased slightly due to the excellent
harvest weather and better than expected yields. Soybean crop ratings
have ended as well as harvest is over 50% complete.
Prices keep rising as the US socialist government is likely to pass bills
pending that will spend AT LEAST 1 complete year's of tax collections
from US taxpayers. This ridiculous increase in spending on government
waste by the socialists in a period of rapid inflation is government
negligence at its best. It will fuel inflation for years, but the
socialist government doesn't care. They have the votes to increase
government welfare, so of course they are going to do it. If they can
permanently establish socialism here, they will certainly do that, too.
Welcome to the United Socialists States of America!!!
Since these programs are very unpopular with taxpayers (who foot the
bill), the current Biden administration's approval ratings have tanked to
the third lowest level of any sitting president in US history (in only 9
months!!!). No wonder Biden is resorting to domestic terrorism from the
government, threatening conservative mothers with domestic terrorism
charges by the Justice Dept. for protesting CRT in public schools,
mandating vaccines so he can effectively fire government officials
against his socialist agenda - airline workers, military men, and all
companies with >100 employees. Don't forget the Jan. 6 peaceful
protestors that are still rotting in prison without charge or ability to
present a defense. Whenever the justice and the constitution are ignored
by government, bad things happen.
This is the way government sponsored tyrants get started; I've always
wondered what the normal German citizen was thinking when the Nazi
socialists took over that country. The ideas were revolutionary just
like this government, just like the socialists in Russia or Venezuela.
Someone supported them, just like the crazies who support this
Perhaps the idea of creating heaven on earth by government dictate is a
mistake??? So far in 6000 years of human history, that is certainly
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Ray is President of Progressive Ag Marketing, Inc., a top Ranked
marketing firm in the country. See http://www.progressiveag.com for
rankings and link to data from Top Producer Magazine and Agweb.com.
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