Mid Week Comments
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War Inching Closer to End???
As Russia closes in on day 13 of the war, negotiators have opened
humanitarian corridors for evacuations of cities under siege. The
corridors go to both Russia/Belarus and to cities in Ukraine. So
temporary cease-fires will be in place to allow this.
We note that Pres. Zelensky still is lobbying for money from the US; if
he is still in Ukraine, they also are offering him safe passage. Who
knows, he might be in a studio right next to Biden's fake White House
studio; he wouldn't be reading a script handed to him, too, would he???
Chicago wheat so far has a downside daily reversal formed just in
overnight trade, with a $12.71 high and $11.42 low for a $1.30 range so
far today - and that was by 6 am!!! With wheat rallying to new all time
highs, and then closing below the old highs we could have a top in wheat
today. However, this also comes after some lock limit higher days on
futures, and synthetics trading $4 higher last week. Could we have the
devastating Russia/Ukraine war finally built into wheat prices?
It still represents a tremendous upheaval of global food supplies, and
potential trouble world wide as we work through this food and energy
crisis. Some of the 'work through's' include the US now negotiating to
buy crude oil from Venezuela (a pure communist country) and Iran (the
sworn enemy of the US). We import 40% more oil just in one year of
Bidenflation. We also are talking with EU representatives about ways to
curtail food prices (open up fallow/CRP lands, suspend biofuels
initiatives, and other ideas). Typical globalists, starting a war, and
then using the 'sheeple' to contain their damage and implement more
diabolical plans!!! The market is asking right now, "Is all time highs
in wheat high enough???"
HRS wheat is at a discount to CBOT (a dollar or so), going from a $1.50
premium to a $1 discount; that is really not acceptable for advancing HRS
wheat sales. But if this is a top in CBOT wheat, it is probably smarter
and safer to buy CBOT put options rather than selling HRS wheat. If the
top is in, at least we don't lock in a $1 discount for a higher quality
wheat. Note wheat price action is important for other commodities, too,
if you want to advance sales.
The Ukraine-Russia war has become a disaster not only for Russia and
Ukraine, but also most of the world as trade appears to be virtually
ceasing between the two blocks, with the iron curtain back up after 30
years of it being down. Now, we could be returning to another 50 years
of the iron curtain (like 1946 to the 90's), with little interaction
between the west and east. While economic warfare (called "sanctions")
has begun, western media is mostly reporting like there will only be
impacts of this economic war to Russia.
But how about impacts to the US/West? We now have the highest oil prices
since 2008, with the $150 all-time high just a few days of volatile trade
away. Wheat rallied to the highest price in human history Monday 3/7,
and is currently lock limit up in both CBOT and HRS. German stocks are
down 20% since this began, a virtual disaster. It certainly appears the
economic pain will be felt all over the world.
What caused this war? Ironically, the West/US propped up a US backed
government in Ukraine in 2014 - a country where 25% of the population is
Russian - overthrowing a pro-Russian elected President. Did we think
that wouldn't impact Russia, its next door neighbor??? Then we armed the
Azov Battalion (even ultra-liberal Wikipedia recognizes this Neo-Nazi
group), who claim they are the best killers in Ukraine - and they 'enjoy
killing'. With 14,000 mostly Russian deaths since 2014 - did we really
think Russia wouldn't mind?
Worse yet, outgunned Ukraine has appointed the Azov Battalion to train
Ukraine "volunteers" to fight guerilla warfare. That will hold off the
Russians longer as they try to avoid civilian deaths. But this will
force many more civilian deaths. The war is going to get a whole lot
uglier, especially since Putin's goal is to eliminate the Azov Battalion
from Ukraine. And the US is determined to arm Ukraine/Azov with the most
sophisticated weapons possible with an unlimited budget. After all, as
one commentator said, "America will fight Russia until the last Ukrainian
soldier".
Meanwhile, US senators are calling for Putin's assassination. Putin has a
69% approval rating in Russia (and last time rose 20% when he invaded
Ukraine/Crimea); Joe Biden has a 35% approval rating and dropping in
America. Who is more likely to be hated in his own country???
America should be careful; supporting "freedom and democracy" in Ukraine
(a very corrupt country), and doing ANYTHING BUT supporting freedom and
democracy in America the past 2 years.
This war is about to get a whole lot more ugly!!! But as usual, the
propaganda and politics might be even worse. And who are the "useful
idiots" who will pay for this drama? I am starting to wonder.